My model accounts for that and gives Jones a 61.8% chance of finishing ahead of Almirola. However, the bigger picture should be in play here. Jones starts 34th thanks to a brush of the wall in his qualifying lap, which is the only thing keeping this matchup close at DraftKings. Jones was 0.7 seconds per lap faster than Almirola in practice over five consecutive laps. As I pointed out with Logano, the Blue Ovals have struggled to find speed this weekend. Meanwhile, Almirola has just four such finishes better than eighth in 11 races with Stewart-Haas Racing. That includes five top-three finishes and six top-five finishes. In seven of his eight incident-free starts before joining Petty GMS, Jones finished inside the top eight at the 2.5-mile flat ovals of Pocono and Indianapolis. Pocono is one of Jones’ best tracks throughout his career. In this battle, one Erik should prevail over the other Aric pretty clearly. The Bet: Bowman +120 over Logano | Bet to: EVEN My model has Bowman as the 52.9% favorite, which is well above the 45.5% implied odds at +120 that DraftKings is giving us. Yes, Bowman starts behind Logano, but their recent track history is a toss-up, with Bowman winning the last four matchups and five of eight overall.
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In fact, no Ford driver cracked the top 14 in practice times, showing how far behind the Blue Ovals unloaded off the haulers. In practice, Bowman had the ninth-fastest time while Logano was 0.6 seconds slower in 16th place. However, if we dive deeper than simply a recent cold streak we’ll see Bowman should be at worst a coin-toss, and at best slightly favored here. *Odds as of Sunday morning Alex Bowman (+120) Over Joey Loganoīowman has struggled as of late, which is likely why books are making him an underdog to Logano in this matchup. ET, USA) both lie in the head-to-head matchup department.īoth bets rely on the same reasoning and are backed up by my statistical model, so let’s jump right in. However, the best value bets I see for Sunday’s M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 at Pocono Raceway (3 p.m. I usually write up outright, manufacturer or top positional bets for these race-day articles because they tend to offer slightly better expected value than matchup bets. These numbers are based off my college football Power Ratings, which you can find here. Check out more NASCAR betting analysis here. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 9’s college football matchups. However, my model gives him a 25.2% chance to bring home the honors as top Ford.The Action Network specializes in providing sports betting insights/analytics and is a content partner with NASCAR. BetMGM has Logano listed at +425 to finish as the top blue oval. However, I’d rather focus on his speed.Īn incident-free race at Sonoma is likely to mean he’ll be one of, if not the top Ford. Last year, Logano started 13th and finished fourth, and I can see a similar performance today.Īt Circuit of The Americas, Logano was fast, but had several spins and incidents relegating him to a 31st-place finish. His two wins make him a lock for the playoffs, freeing him up to key in on the race win. Except in Logano’s case, it’s even more certain he will do so. Like Busch, Logano can focus on the race-winning strategy. The Bet: Kurt Busch Top Toyota +500 | Bet to: +450 Joey Logano Top Ford +425 That means he should be priced at +400 instead of +500, making this a solid value at BetMGM. My model gives Busch a 19.9% chance to finish as the top Toyota. With a win in the bag, Kurt is probably in good enough shape to avoid having to points race, meaning he can take the optimal strategy to finish as high as possible. The elder Busch brother was fast in practice as well, posting the second best five- and 10-lap average speed among the Toyotas, behind only his brother, Kyle. *Odds as of Sunday morning Kurt Busch Top Toyota +500īusch has seven finishes of seventh or better in his last 10 starts at Sonoma, and rolls off 11th in today’s race.
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In last year’s race, two other drivers pulled off top-six finishes, have shown speed this weekend and are undervalued relative to other drivers in their respective manufacturer groups.
With Larson and Elliott repeating their front row performance from last year, but at such short odds, I’m looking elsewhere for betting value. Last year, Larson dominated from the pole en route to a clean sweep of both stages, and the race victory. Check out more NASCAR betting analysis here.įor the second year in a row, the Hendrick Motorsports teammates of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott will lead the field to green at Sonoma (4 p.m. The Action Network specializes in providing sports betting insights/analytics and is a content partner with NASCAR.
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